Southampton vs Man City odds

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flusheding said:
Surely the original odds are based on form and then as more and more money is bwt on either side, the odds are then altered to counter this so the bookie is more likely to profit?
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sigh... nope. They are based on how the amount of money previously gets placed on these teams and a little bit of form.

you have to remember that the bookies have absolutely no interest on who wins and are not trying to predict the winner either. What they are doing is trying to do it make money out of how people will bet. This is nothing to do with who will actually win.

do you understand this?

rakuga said:
I have to say, almost every word of this post is completely mis-informed. The odds offered DIRECTLY relate to the chance of a given eventuality. In fact, if you look over all past results in all sports, you find even money shots come in roughly 50% of the time, 3/1 shots 25% of the time etc etc.

What you say is a paradox - how can bookies frame a market and come up with odds before a single penny is staked??

Football goal lines and match odds are created using a rating system that can assess the goal expectancy from each team, combined with Poisson distribution. From this you can extrapolate the percentage chance of each team reaching their goal expectancy, and thus their chances of winning. They frame a market to 100%, then add in their overround - generally anything from 5% to 40% depending on the market (match odds best, things like correct score/scorer the worst). THIS is how they make their money. You see it in odds offered on the coin toss in cricket - 10/11 the pair as opposed to evens.

Odds only shift under weight of money if a bookmaker wants to balance his book, ie if a team is backed heavily, it is shortened to tempt people into backing the other two runners (which are themselves lengthened).

Most of the time, or much more than you would expect, bookies are actually left with a lopsided book, with the majority of money going on the fav. In the long run they are always saved by the overround, but they will often be cheering for a certain result, especially if their early prices were way out of line - the bookies rating systems are not infallible, and can often be 'beat'.
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I refer you to the post I made immediately above that I make instead of trying to explain it again. I can do no simpler than this.

If you don't get it then the bookies will love you.

They do not care about the result. They care about making money. That should...in the most basic of thought.... tell you that they are not trying to predict the outcome.

seriously. You do understand this don't you?

What they do bank on is that people like you do think they can predict the outcome. That's who they make money from. Are there seriously this many people who don't understand odds?
 
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10 Trenches Deep said:
sigh... nope. They are based on how the amount of money previously gets placed on these teams and a little bit of form.

do you understand this?
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So you completely backtracked on yourself then as you started off on the thread saying it had absolutely nothing to do with form. :lol::lol::lol:

Its quite obvious initial odds are based on form as if it was only "money previously placed on a team" then in this sort of scenario Southampton would be so low
 
Littlerobbieh said:
What a load of shit. In reply to the OP 13/10 for man city is buying money.
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Do you really not understand the above?

Seriously?

Are you daft enough to think it's some kind of manly competition of your perception against the bookies? They sincerely hope that you do think this. You are an almighty fool and the bookies delight if you do think like this.

flusheding said:
So you completely backtracked on yourself then as you started off on the thread saying it had absolutely nothing to do with form. :lol::lol::lol:

Its quite obvious initial odds are based on form as if it was only "money previously placed on a team" then in this sort of scenario Southampton would be so low
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Nope. I think you fail to understand again.

You should keep on imagining that it's some kind of competition of your perception against the bookies... who on occasion don't know.

they will like it that way and it's clear, so do you.

I can only tell you how the odds actually work. If you want to ignore the rules of running a profitable business and mathematics because it takes away your macho verification of some pseudo intellect then by all means carry on. I bet you dream of the day you break the bookie as well.:lol:
 
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10 Trenches Deep said:
Do you really not understand the above?

Seriously?

Are you daft enough to think it's some kind of manly competition of your perception against the bookies? They sincerely hope that you do think this. You are an almighty fool and the bookies delight if you do think like this.
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I understand perfectly how the bookies work thanks. Instead of coming across like an arrogant wanker maybe you should re-evaluate and you might realise what absolute garbage you wrote on page 1.
 
Littlerobbieh said:
I understand perfectly how the bookies work thanks. Instead of coming across like an arrogant wanker maybe you should re-evaluate and you might realise what absolute garbage you wrote on page 1.
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Make a bet and be happy. Just don't believe that somehow you are taking the bookie or that they are even trying to predict the outcome.

Your thoughts on the outcome are not the same line of thinking as the odds you might talk about in betting on the result at 'X' odds. It's the confusion of those two points that is idiocy. The OPs post exemplifies this joining of two points that are in fact not related. You wish them to be, because it verifies your perceived opinion however the fact remains that the bookies do not care who wins when they make their odds.

Given this FACT it is clear that in talking about the 'value' of odds on the Game X(or any other), all that you are doing is betting against Team X fans and not winning the total amount they bet, just the odds that the bookie gives you.

The middle man in the bet couldn't give a shit about the result and fixes their odds to always make money regardless of the result.

Clearly this does not equal the result.
 
Hell of a meltdown on this thread mind for no particular reason.

Either way, City represent value at that price although given it has drifted the the bookies clearly want them beat and are after them.

10 Trenches Deep said:
Make a bet and be happy. Just don't believe that somehow you are taking the bookie or that they are even trying to predict the outcome.

Your thoughts on the outcome are not the same line of thinking as the odds you might talk about in betting on the result at 'X' odds. It's the confusion of those two points that is idiocy. The OPs post exemplifies this joining of two points that are in fact not related. You wish them to be, because it verifies your perceived opinion however the fact remains that the bookies do not care who wins when they make their odds.

Given this FACT it is clear that in talking about the 'value' of odds on the Game X(or any other), all that you are doing is betting against Team X fans and not winning the total amount they bet, just the odds that the bookie gives you.

The middle man in the bet couldn't give a shit about the result and fixes their odds to always make money regardless of the result.

Clearly this does not equal the result.
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You are massively wrong mind, bookies will try and get things beat all of the time, they will hang a price out there to get something beat.
Based on what you are saying, why are City a bigger price this season that they were last?
 
10 Trenches Deep said:
Make a bet and be happy. Just don't believe that somehow you are taking the bookie or that they are even trying to predict the outcome.

Your thoughts on the outcome are not the same line of thinking as the odds you might talk about in betting on the result at 'X' odds. It's the confusion of those two points that is idiocy. The OPs post exemplifies this joining of two points that are in fact not related. You wish them to be, because it verifies your perceived opinion however the fact remains that the bookies do not care who wins when they make their odds.

Given this FACT it is clear that in talking about the 'value' of odds on the Game X(or any other), all that you are doing is betting against Team X fans and not winning the total amount they bet, just the odds that the bookie gives you.

The middle man in the bet couldn't give a shit about the result and fixes their odds to always make money regardless of the result.

Clearly this does not equal the result.
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Well that's just a load of gobbledygook. You're trying to be smart but you're just making yourself look like an idiot. Just drop the thread mate and forget it. I won't reply again so if you want the last word go for it and good luck.
 
Pepe said:
Hell of a meltdown on this thread mind for no particular reason.

Either way, City represent value at that price although given it has drifted the the bookies clearly want them beat and are after them.


You are massively wrong mind, bookies will try and get things beat all of the time, they will hang a price out there to get something beat.
Based on what you are saying, why are City a bigger price this season that they were last?[/QUOTE]


because most of the money is on Chelsea... seriously you need to ask this?
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Pepe said:
Hell of a meltdown on this thread mind for no particular reason.

Either way, City represent value at that price although given it has drifted the the bookies clearly want them beat and are after them.


You are massively wrong mind, bookies will try and get things beat all of the time, they will hang a price out there to get something beat.
Based on what you are saying, why are City a bigger price this season that they were last?
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Sorry my reply above misunderstood your question. The reason City are a bigger price than last year is because given the league and form and people like you who bet more money has gone on Southampton to win this year than last.

Bookies only ever chase the money never the result. Otherwise they would not stay in business. It really is amazing that people are even arguing against this idea and for the idea that somehow they can beat the bookie or that the bookie even cares about or is actually predicting the result come kick off.

They are doing none of this. And basing your ideas of bookies odds is pure folly.
 
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10 Trenches Deep said:
sigh... nope. They are based on how the amount of money previously gets placed on these teams and a little bit of form.

you have to remember that the bookies have absolutely no interest on who wins and are not trying to predict the winner either. What they are doing is trying to do it make money out of how people will bet. This is nothing to do with who will actually win.

do you understand this?



I refer you to the post I made immediately above that I make instead of trying to explain it again. I can do no simpler than this.

If you don't get it then the bookies will love you.

They do not care about the result. They care about making money. That should...in the most basic of thought.... tell you that they are not trying to predict the outcome.

seriously. You do understand this don't you?

What they do bank on is that people like you do think they can predict the outcome. That's who they make money from. Are there seriously this many people who don't understand odds?
Click to expand...

A 'little bit of form'? Which bit's that then?? Odds are based on a statistical model, I don't really see how you could do it any other way. They're not trying to predict a winner as you seem so focused on, just an implied percentage chance for each team. It is the overround that ensures they make yearly profits.

I was actually trying to give a bit of behind the scenes knowledge, taken from working as a trader and odds compiler at Stan James and Coral for I guess nearly 8 years. So I'll trust my judgement, cheers!

On a mildly related note, I remember doing my nut in the office when Carlos scored the third against Burnley all those years ago - I got taken into the managers room and got a dressing down for celebrating a result that cost the company money!
 
10 Trenches Deep said:
Sorry my reply above misunderstood your question. The reason City are a bigger price than last year is because given the league and form and people like you who bet more money has gone on Southampton to win this year than last.

Bookies only ever chase the money never the result. Otherwise they would not stay in business. It really is amazing that people are even arguing against this idea and for the idea that somehow they can beat the bookie or that the bookie even cares about or is actually predicting the result come kick off.

They are doing none of this. And basing your ideas of bookies odds is pure folly.
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I wonder how much money was punted on Southampton today, out of interest.
City looking an even better price now.
 
The Bridge Lad said:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-man-city/winner

Southampton as short as 2/1, City available at 13/10 - anyone else quite surprised by these odds?

Obviously Southampton have started the season very well and have a superb home record (Sunderland and Newcastle have helped this considerably) - they have won 5 in a row at home, drawing their other home game and have only conceded 1 goal in 6 games. Man City have won 3 and drawn 2 of their 6 away games.

Saints are in 2nd place and are currently 2 points clear of City but i was still expecting odds of around 4/1. I know Southampton are far better than Sunderland and Chelsea look a lot better than City this season, but we are available at 9/1 at home to Chelsea as a comparison.

I might lump on that 13/10 City. Either way, i'm looking forward to this match on Sunday.

Anyone else see value in the 13/10?
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Didn't lump on :(

Mind after 70 mins after the red card i was quite pleased i didn't
 
I was lumped on City for that price. With the predicted 'profit' I am in a Man City Win, Spurs/Everton Draw double. So at worst I will be slightly up for the day, if the draw comes in it will be a nice little end to the football weekend for me :cool:
 
10 Trenches Deep said:
More than was punted on them in this fixture last year.
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Negligible amount. The match is priced up and then the astute punter will work out where the value is, won't always come in but that is why you look for value.
City at evens today wouldn't have represented value.
 
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